Understanding implied probability is the foundation of successful sports predictions. Here’s how it works.

Decimal Odds to Probability

The formula is simple: Probability (%) = (1 / Decimal Odds) × 100

For example, odds of 2.50 imply a 40% chance of that outcome occurring.

Finding Value

A value bet exists when your assessed probability is higher than the implied probability from the odds.

If you believe a team has a 50% chance of winning, but the odds imply only 40%, you have found a value bet.

Removing the Margin

Bookmakers build a profit margin into their odds. To get true probabilities, remove this margin by dividing each implied probability by the total market percentage.