Expected Goals (xG) is one of the most powerful metrics in modern football analytics. But what exactly is it and how can you use it?

What is xG?

xG measures the quality of a scoring chance by assigning a probability (0 to 1) of a shot resulting in a goal. A shot from 6 yards out with no defender has a high xG (~0.8), while a 30-yard screamer has a very low xG (~0.02).

How to Use xG for Predictions

• Form analysis: Compare a team's xG for and against over their last 5 games
• Over/Under betting: Teams with high xG totals tend to be involved in high-scoring games
• Regression to mean: A team outperforming their xG significantly is likely due for a downturn

Combine xG with traditional stats for a more complete picture before placing your predictions.